Montero helping Sounders FC across the river

Soccer Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a record of 12-7-11, a playoff spot as the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, a U.S. Open Cup Championship, and almost half-a- million in paid attendance, Seattle Sounders FC was coming off one of the most successful expansion seasons in Major League Soccer history in 2009.

But the first half to the 2010 season didn't go nearly as smoothly.

The Sounders were 4-8-3 after a July 4 loss at the Los Angeles Galaxy, and it appeared the second-year MLS club was headed for a major letdown in 2010.

But since that loss at L.A., the Sounders have gone 5-1-2 to improve their overall record to 9-9-5.

Twenty-three-year-old Colombian striker Fredy Montero has been one of the main reasons for the recent turnaround. He scored five goals during that stretch, three of which were game-winners. He also has three game-winning assists.

Montero has 10 goals and nine assists overall this season, and is on pace to easily best his 12 goals and seven assists of last season, when he won the MLS Newcomer of the Year Award. But his contributions go well beyond the numbers.

Since joining MLS from Colombia's First Division - where he was the Golden Boot winner in 2007 and 2008 - Montero has established himself as one of the league's most consistent attackers. He has made the adjustment to a different culture and to a league that has a lot more travel, is much more physical, and has inconsistent refereeing from game to game. And he has done it all while upping his commitment to the Sounders, both on and off the field.

"He has really increased his work-rate on and off the ball for us in terms of helping us out at times defensively and getting himself into some very good offensive positions," Seattle coach Sigi Schmid told The Sportsbook Betting Lines. "He's had more touches because the guys have been more comfortable with him. They know where to find him.

"He got used to the league. It's something we talked about. He was already pretty powerful and knew how to use his body, it definitely comes into play. He realizes that some of the calls he would get in Colombia he wouldn't get here, he's fighting through some of those situations. Obviously he's one of our leaders in the game, he's one of our most important players."

Basically, Montero has transformed himself from the hotshot newcomer, into a respected leader on the team.

"I'm happy because I've earned that on the field," Montero told The Sportsbook Betting Lines through interpreter Gene Ramirez. "Obviously the responsibility is bigger with my [teammates], coaches, and the [front office], and obviously with all the fans."

Last season Montero put up big numbers as an unknown playing for an expansion team. The fact that it appears like he is going to smash his goal output from a year ago - while already topping his assist mark - is a testament to his hard work, because teams now know what to expect from the 5-foot-9 speedster.

"It is a little harder at the personal level and the collective level because the goals that I am scoring this year are starting to look like a virtue of mine," Montero said. "Last year I was not that well known in MLS."

RUNNING DOWN A DREAM

It's no secret that Montero has his sight set on a transfer to a European power at some point in his soccer career, but so far he is taking a patient approach, refining his game so that he gives himself the best chance for long- term success at the highest level.

"That is my dream and I believe it is the dream of all the players to be in the highest, most competitive leagues in all of Europe," he said. "I'm hoping that when the times comes, I go there and play there for a long time and not just one season and return like some players have done."

One driving force for Montero is the support of his family as he chases his dream.

"It is not easy at my age," he said. "Obviously I left my house at 13-years- old following my dream. I'm still following my dream. It's gratifying that I have my mom, dad, brothers and sisters living with me. It's gratifying to have them by my side."

BUMP IN THE ROAD

Seattle is coming off a 3-1 loss at New England on Saturday, a loss that snapped a seven-game unbeaten run. Will that loss send the team back into a tailspin, or was it a bump in the road to the MLS Cup playoffs?

"Right now our short-term goal is we have to make sure we make the playoffs," Schmid said. "We can't get caught looking ahead. The example I always use for players is, if you are trying to get to the other side of the river and you are walking across stones, your goal is to get to the other side of the river. But if you take your eye off the next stone you go splash and you never get to the other side."

Montero echoed Schmid's statement.

"We are taking it one game at a time and we try to view each game as if it was a playoff game, whether its a CONCACAF game, U.S. Open Cup or an MLS game."

Seattle is currently in seventh in the league table, with the top eight qualifying for the playoffs at the end of October.

FIRST TO TWO

Regardless of what happens in league play this season, the Sounders have a chance to do something no MLS team has ever done before - win back-to-back U.S. Open Cup Championships.

"Nobody has won it back-to-back since the early 80s when a New York team did it when it was basically all of the ethnic leagues all over the country," Schmid said. "Being the first team in a long time to win it back-to-back, being the first team in MLS is something that we would be very proud of. It's unique, it's different, it sets us apart. When you can be the first at something nobody can every take that away from you."

The Sounders host the Columbus Crew in the tournament final on Oct. 5 at Qwest Field.

"You don't get many chances in your lifetime as a soccer player, as a coach, to actually win a championship in your home stadium," Schmid said. "It doesn't happen in MLS Cup very often. Obviously it doesn't happen in [CONCACAF] Champions League and things like that. It is very rare that you get a chance to hoist a trophy in front of your home crowd. We are very excited about that."

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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